How Likely That Trump's Gaza Plan Will Be Effective?
The militant group's conditional endorsement toward the US president's Gaza agreement last Friday has been received global support representing the closest Israel and Hamas have come over the past 24 months to ending the conflict within the Gaza Strip.
How Close Are We to an Agreement?
Hamas's qualified backing of the Trump plan is the closest negotiators have got over the last several months toward a full termination to the war inside the Gaza Strip. Nevertheless, they remain distant from a settlement.
Trump's 20-point proposal to stop the war stipulates for Hamas release every captive over 72 hours, give up control to a transnational body headed by the US president, and lay down its weapons. In return, Israeli forces would slowly pull back its forces from the Gaza Strip and return over one thousand Palestinian prisoners.
The proposal will also mean a boost of assistance to Gaza, parts of which are experiencing famine, and reconstruction funds to Gaza, that has been nearly completely devastated.
Hamas gave consent on three items: the release of all hostages, the surrendering of power and the pullout of Israeli forces from Gaza. The group declared the rest of the deal must be discussed together with other Palestinian parties, since it forms part of a unified national position.
Effectively, this means Hamas wants further negotiations on the contentious elements of the US plan, specifically the request for its disarmament, and a definite schedule regarding Israeli troop pullout.
Where and When Will Negotiations Occur?
Representatives have flown to Cairo to finalize specifics to narrow the divide between the two sides.
The talks will start tomorrow and it is anticipated to produce conclusions within a few days, whether positive or negative.
Trump shared an image of a map of Gaza on Saturday night that showed the boundary to which Israeli troops ought to pull back and said that if the group consents to the terms, the truce would begin right away. Donald Trump is anxious to stop the conflict as it approaches to its two year mark and prior to the Nobel prize committee declares who receives the Nobel Peace Prize in October, an issue that is a widely known obsession of his.
Benjamin Netanyahu stated a deal to secure the return of Israeli hostages home should preferably take place soon.
Which Differences Remain?
The two sides have hedged their bets going into the talks.
The group has repeatedly refused to lay down its arms in past negotiations. It has given no word whether its stance has changed regarding this issue, despite it principally agrees to Trump’s plan, with qualifications. The US and Israel have emphasized that there is little wiggle room regarding the disarmament demand and are determined to bind Hamas with binding language in any plan going forward.
Hamas also said it agreed to surrendering power over Gaza to a technocratic governing force, as outlined in the US proposal. However, in a statement, Hamas specified it would accept a Gaza-based expert-led administration, rather than the global authority that Trump laid out in its plan.
Israel has also tried to keep the matter of its troop withdrawal unclear. Just hours following the announcement of the US proposal during a shared media briefing in Washington last week, Netanyahu released a recording reassuring Israelis that soldiers would remain across much of Gaza.
Last Saturday evening, the Israeli prime minister reiterated that forces would stay in Gaza, saying that captives would be returned as the Israeli military would stay within Gaza's interior.
Netanyahu’s position seemingly stands against the requirement in Trump’s plan that Israeli forces fully withdraw from Gaza. Hamas will demand guarantees that Israel will fully withdraw and that should the group surrenders its weapons, Israeli forces will not re-enter Gaza.
Negotiators must close these differences, securing clear, strict language regarding giving up weapons from the group. They will also have to show to Hamas that Israel will truly pull out from the territory and that there are international guarantees that will compel the Israeli state to comply with the conditions of the deal.
The differences might be resolved, and the United States will certainly pressure the two sides to reach an agreement. Nevertheless, negotiations have got close to an agreement previously suddenly collapsing multiple times over the last 24 months, making both sides wary of celebrating before a final signing.